In a bit of good news for drought-suffering Australia, recent data show that the current El Niño is beginning to weaken, and drought conditions would dissipate over the next few months. But always eager to tie anything to global warming, the story included this line: "Earlier this month the weather bureau said Australia appeared to be suffering from accelerated greenhouse warming, meaning El Nino may occur more frequently and with more intensity as surface water in the central Pacific steadily warmed." But the weather bureau doesn't say that global warming may also weaken and decrease the El Niño and La Niña cycle, depending on which climate model you use. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the relationship between El Niño and global warming is unknown:
We don't know the answer to this question. It is certainly a plausible hypothesis that global warming may affect El Niño, since both phenomena involve large changes in the earth's heat balance. However, computer climate models, one of the primary research tools for studies of global warming, are hampered by inadequate representation of many key physical processes (such as the effects of clouds on climate and the role of the ocean). Also, no computer model yet can reliably simulate BOTH El Niño AND greenhouse gas warming together. So, depending on which model you choose to believe, you can get different answers. For example, some scientists have speculated that a warmer atmosphere is likely to produce stronger or more frequent El Niños, based on trends observed over the past 25 years. However, some computer models indicate El Niños may actually be weaker in a warmer climate. This is a very complicated (but very important!) issue that will require further research to arrive at a convincing answer.[emph. added]
"Depending on which climate model you choose to believe." Wait, believing that people are causing global warming and can reverse it depends on choosing a specific climate model? It's a matter of faith? Mother Gaia will be pleased.
Also, no computer model yet can reliably simulate BOTH El Niño AND greenhouse gas warming together.
ReplyDeleteI was unaware that a computer model could, as yet, reliably simulate "greenhouse gas warming" at all. Or even prove it exists. Or describe, with accurate and/or predictable numbers, any single thing or class of things creating "greenhouse gas warming."
Brenda:
ReplyDeleteThe way these computer models have been working is, first you figure out your area of advocacy. Second, choose the model which "proves" your agenda. Third, conveniently ignore that all models describe hypothetical scenarios based on incomplete and warm-biased data, and push your point harder: Carbon Credits uber alles!