A few days ago, I wrote about the 10 km rule of thumb for successful breakaways, but there is actually a simple algebraic calculation that lets team directors know when to whip up the peloton to catch those breaks. If you watch any of the English language coverage of the Tour de France, you may hear Paul Sherwen say he's consulted his race computer and figures the break will survive by such and such seconds. How does he do it? Easy: he takes the speed of the break (as measured by the motorcycles pacing them) at one of the kilometer markers, waits for the peloton to pass the same marker, notes their speed (again, as measured from some pace vehicle) and notes the time gap. Distance divided by speed equals time, so he just figures the time for both the break and peloton from their respective speeds, and adds the time gap to the peloton. If the peloton's time is bigger than the break, the escape succeeds, and the sprinters swallow their frustration. The 10 km mark is used mainly for ease of calculation (gotta love those metric units), and it's close enough to the finish that the main group is usually serious about organizing a field sprint by that time. If no team is serious, then the break can get away, and even increase their lead, like on today's stage when Nicki Sorensen broke out of the 7 man break, and got his first stage victory in 4 years.
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