Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Climate Models Show Warming Decreases Hurricane Frequency

Wha...? World Climate Report has the story: according to two newly published papers, one shows that there is no trend in earlier start dates of hurricane seasons associated with the warming phase of Atlantic Ocean water, and the other shows that injecting a warming component into cyclone frequency models predicts fewer cyclones. Of course, there have been published papers last year that conclude that the number of strong hurricanes will increase, not that there will be more hurricanes in general, but that is a semantic difference headline writers shy away from because that is just not sensationalistic enough. But still, when only one hurricane reached landfall this last season, when earlier predictions said there would be nine to thirteen, this extreme weather due to global warming motif seems to have lost its reality check in the mail.

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