Wednesday, June 20, 2007

China Now The Biggest Belcher

According to a dutch think tank, China has already surpassed the U.S. as the leading emitter of carbon dioxide. This is only surprising that it happened already, since most academics and other agencies predicted the change in top spots to happen by 2009 at the earliest. Bearing that in mind, it's not surprising at the amount of weasel words used in the story:

  • based on the latest widely accepted energy consumption data
  • The group's analysis makes sense and had been predicted to happen by 2009 or 2010, said experts from the United Nations and the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and outside academics.
  • the analysis was done using methods and data that "are the best currently available."
  • Earlier figures indicated China would likely surpass the U.S. in greenhouse gas emissions as early as 2009, although other predictions said it could happen this year.
  • We have no reason to doubt that the numbers are right. We have no reason to doubt the methodology.

This is bad news for most warming alarmists who want to harm the United States' economy, and currently have no leverage on communist China. So, the stress now moves away from current emissions to past emissions.

But the issue isn't just current emissions, but carbon dioxide stuck in the atmosphere, where it lingers for about a century trapping heat below, said Jay Apt, a professor of engineering, business and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh.

Apt and a colleague calculated the share of carbon dioxide now in the atmosphere that can be attributed to each country and determined that the United States is responsible for 27 percent, European nations contributed 20 percent and China only 8 percent.

"The planet does not respond to emissions, the planet responds to the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere," said Apt. "It means the U.S. will have the lion's share of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for the foreseeable future. In fact, even if China's exponential growth continues, China will not surpass the U.S. in the numbers of carbon dioxide atoms in the atmosphere, that is concentration, until at least 2050, which is too late to start anything."

Of course, this is CO2 which is already in the atmosphere, where no amount of emissions trading, offset purchases, and shuttering coal-fired power plants will remove it. The important thing is that the US is still the number one bad guy! Whew! Greens can stay on that message for at least another 40 years. No need to hamper fellow communists, er, uh, we mean developing countries like China.

2 comments:

  1. The United States, on a per person basis, emits four times as much carbon as China. See the numbers here.

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  2. John-google:

    I don't need to go to your link, because I have the power of Math!

    China just surpassed the US in emissions, but has about 1.3 billion people. Meanwhile, the US has just over 300 million people. Why, by golly, 1.3 billion divided by 300 million looks suspiciously like the number 4.

    Remember, Mother Gaia doesn't care how many people are in your country. She cares about how big that carbon pillow is that's smothering her to death. Wah! China's pillow is now bigger than nasty mean America's.

    Also, if you read the AP article, a Chinese officials made the same breathless whiny point you did. It's the carbon, stupid. Not the carbon per capita, stupid.

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